The track forecast map is the picture you'll stare at most during a storm. Once you know what each mark means, you can read it in seconds — and avoid the misreadings that get people in trouble.
The line and the dots
The solid line is NHC's forecast track of the storm's center. The dots along it are the predicted center positions at set times, each labeled with a day and hour. A letter at each dot tells you the system's expected strength at that time:
- D — Tropical Depression (winds up to 38 mph)
- S — Tropical Storm (39-73 mph)
- H — Hurricane (74-110 mph)
- M — Major Hurricane (Category 3 or higher, 111 mph and up)
So a dot marked “H” on Friday 8 PM means NHC expects a hurricane centered there at that time.
The cone around the line
The shaded cone shows the likely error in that center forecast — the center stays inside it only about two-thirds of the time. It is not the size of the storm and not the area that will see impacts. Hazards routinely extend far outside the cone, so never treat the cone's edge as a safety line. (For a deeper look, see “The Cone of Uncertainty.”)
The colors along the coast
The coastal (and, as of 2026, inland) shading shows watches and warnings: typically yellow for a Tropical Storm Watch, blue for a Tropical Storm Warning, pink for a Hurricane Watch, and red for a Hurricane Warning. These — not the cone — tell you who needs to act, and when.
How to read it in four steps
- Find your location, then resist the urge to check only whether you're “in the cone.”
- Check the colors over you — are you under a watch or a warning?
- Read the timing from the nearest dots — when would conditions arrive?
- Open the hazard graphics (surge, wind, rain) for what the storm actually means where you are.
Bottom line
The track map shows where the center is forecast to go and how strong it should be along the way. Your real risk comes from the watches, warnings, and hazard graphics — read those, and don't let the cone's edge lull you into thinking you're safe.