Hurricane Education

Background reading on hurricane science, NHC forecast products, and preparedness. Built for everyone from first-timers to weather enthusiasts who want to dig deeper.

Looking for how to interpret a specific NHC product (cone, surge, wind probabilities)? See the Products Guide.

The basics

Hurricanes (also called typhoons in the Western Pacific) are rotating low-pressure systems with sustained winds of at least 74 mph. They form over warm ocean water, strengthen through a feedback loop between sea-surface temperature, latent heat release, and atmospheric circulation, and weaken when they cross land or move over cooler water.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 to November 30, with peak activity in August through October. Eastern Pacific season starts a little earlier (May 15).

How forecasting works

Modern hurricane forecasting combines satellite imagery, aircraft reconnaissance ("hurricane hunters"), buoys, dropsondes, and dozens of numerical weather prediction models. The National Hurricane Center synthesizes all of this into the official forecast you see on TV and our site.

Key model families:

• GFS (Global Forecast System) — NOAA's flagship global model. Free, public.
• ECMWF (European Centre) — generally the best-verifying model for hurricanes; subscription.
• HAFS — NOAA's hurricane-specific high-resolution model (3 km).
• HWRF — older hurricane model, being phased out in favor of HAFS.
• GEFS — ensemble of 31 GFS runs with perturbed initial conditions, used for uncertainty quantification.

NHC's official forecast usually tracks closer to a multi-model consensus than any single model. The classic "spaghetti plot" you see online shows individual model tracks; NHC's cone is the consensus + historical error margins.

Key terminology

Tropical Depression (TD)

Sustained winds < 39 mph. Unnamed, designated by number.

Tropical Storm (TS)

39–73 mph. Gets a name.

Hurricane (H)

74+ mph. Classified Cat 1–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Invest

An "area of investigation" — disturbed weather NHC is monitoring for development. Numbered 90-99, recycling each season.

Cone of uncertainty

The forecast envelope showing where the center of the storm could go. Impacts extend well outside the cone.

Storm surge

Sea water pushed inland by hurricane winds — the deadliest hazard for most coastal hurricanes.

Rapid intensification (RI)

Wind speed increase of 35+ mph in 24 hours. Increasingly common as oceans warm.

Preparedness

The single most useful thing you can do, in order of priority:

1. Know your zone. Most coastal counties have storm-surge evacuation zones (A, B, C, D, or numbered). Look yours up before a storm threatens.
2. Have a plan. Where you'll go, how you'll get there, what you'll bring. Discuss with everyone in your household.
3. Supplies for 3+ days. Water (1 gallon per person per day), non-perishable food, medications, flashlights, batteries, first-aid kit, cash.
4. Sign up for alerts. Your county's emergency management office, FEMA's IPAWS, and one third-party service (us, NWS, Weather Channel app, etc.).
5. Know when to evacuate. If an evacuation order is issued for your zone, leave. Don't wait. Most hurricane deaths are preventable.

Deep-dive articles

Coming soon — individual articles on:

• Reading a satellite image — what cloud features tell you about a storm's strength
• Decoding the forecast discussion — what NHC really means by "model consensus"
• Wind shear and dry-air entrainment — the two things that can take a storm apart
• Storm surge dynamics — why some storms produce more surge than others of the same strength
• Rapid intensification and what we can/can't predict
• Why a Cat 1 can be worse than a Cat 4 (Helene 2024 is a case study)