Opening a dedicated tracking thread for advisory-by-advisory updates on Helene (AL092024). As of Advisory 14 (5 PM EDT Sep 26): location 27.9N 84.6W, about 130 miles W of Tampa. Max sustained winds 125 mph, central pressure 951 mb. Moving NNE at 23 mph. Big Bend Florida landfall expected this evening.

The NHC Discussion 14 is worth reading in full. Quoting the key part: "Helene has rapidly intensified today while nearing landfall in the Florida Big Bend. Doppler radar and aircraft data indicate that the eyewall is now completely closed and the eye has become more circular and is clearing out." The inner-core contraction and rapid intensification today (30 kt in a single morning) are what pushed this into major-hurricane territory before landfall.

Advisory 14 confirms additional strengthening is still expected before landfall — it 'will likely be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane at landfall.' The fast forward motion (23 mph) means the surge window is compressed but also that damaging wind gusts will penetrate well inland, including the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

Watching the sky change here. Outer bands have been coming through since early afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds are already occurring across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida per the NHC bulletin. Rain totals forecast: 6-12 inches widespread, isolated up to 20 inches over the Appalachians. Catastrophic flooding risk inland even after landfall.