Helene (historical)
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Environment along NHC's forecast track
Sample data — Layout preview with real NHC SHIPS data from Polo (Sep 26, 12:00 UTC). NHC does not keep SHIPS text for 2024 storms such as Helene in its public archive, so these numbers are not Helene's.
- Wind shear: moderate for the next 2 days (14–18 mph), rising to strong in about 3 days (31–37 mph).
- Ocean temperature: very warm through the next 3 days (84–89 °F / 28.7–31.4 °C).
- Warm water depth: shallow through the next 3 days (5–17 kJ/cm²).
- Mid-level moisture: moist for the next day (71–74%), falling to moderate in about 2 days (59–63%).
Wind shear (kt)
Sea-surface temperature (°C) and ocean heat content (kJ/cm²)
Relative humidity, 700 to 500 mb (%)
200 mb divergence and 850 mb vorticity (10⁻⁷ s⁻¹)
All SHIPS environment values
| SHIPS row | Unit | 0 h | 6 h | 12 h | 18 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind shear, 850 to 200 mb SHEAR (KT) |
kt | 13 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 27 | 33 | 32 |
| Shear direction SHEAR DIR |
° | 82 | 79 | 86 | 101 | 118 | 160 | 195 | 203 | 248 | 247 | 267 |
| SHEAR ADJ (KT) | kt | 3 | 2 | 0 | -3 | -7 | -3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 7 | -1 |
| Sea-surface temperature SST (C) |
°C | 30.0 | 29.6 | 29.6 | 29.4 | 28.7 | 28.5 | 28.9 | 29.3 | 31.4 | over land | over land |
| Ocean heat content HEAT CONTENT |
kJ/cm² | 17 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | over land | over land |
| Maximum potential intensity POT. INT. (KT) |
kt | 165 | 161 | 160 | 159 | 151 | 149 | 153 | 158 | 173 | over land | over land |
| Relative humidity, 700 to 500 mb 700-500 MB RH |
% | 71 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 74 | 63 | 63 | 59 | 59 | 57 | 61 |
| Temperature at 200 mb 200 MB T (C) |
°C | -49.7 | -49.8 | -49.4 | -49.4 | -49.7 | -49.3 | -49.2 | -48.4 | -48.1 | -47.1 | -47.2 |
| 200 MB VXT (C) | °C | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| TH_E DEV (C) | °C | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Vorticity at 850 mb 850 MB ENV VOR |
10⁻⁷ s⁻¹ | 19 | 8 | 4 | 22 | 31 | 57 | 33 | 29 | 81 | 84 | 85 |
| Divergence at 200 mb 200 MB DIV |
10⁻⁷ s⁻¹ | 34 | 48 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 35 | -10 | 3 | 38 | 56 | 26 |
| Temperature advection, 850 to 700 mb 700-850 TADV |
10⁻⁶ °C/s | -4 | -8 | -7 | -9 | -6 | -5 | -6 | -10 | -3 | -16 | 16 |
| MODEL VTX (KT) | kt | 27 | 27 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 21 | 18 | 6 | 5 |
| Distance to land LAND (KM) |
km | 598 | 565 | 547 | 497 | 464 | 327 | 171 | 41 | 6 | -260 | -507 |
| Forward speed STM SPEED (KT) |
kt | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 |
What the rows mean
- Wind shear, 850 to 200 mb: Change in wind between about 5,000 and 40,000 feet. Low: below 10 kt. Moderate: 10 to 20 kt. Strong: above 20 kt, which tends to weaken a storm.
- Shear direction: Heading of the shear vector as SHIPS reports it; SHIPS documentation gives shear from the west as 90°.
- Sea-surface temperature: Below about 26.5 °C the ocean generally cannot sustain a tropical cyclone.
- Ocean heat content: Heat stored in water warmer than 26 °C; a deep warm layer resists the cooling a storm stirs up.
- Maximum potential intensity: The strongest sustained wind the ocean and atmosphere could support (Emanuel formula, as used by SHIPS). Not shown over land.
- Relative humidity, 700 to 500 mb: Moisture about 10,000 to 18,000 feet up; dry air there can weaken thunderstorms.
- Temperature at 200 mb: Air temperature near the storm top (about 40,000 feet), averaged around the storm; colder air aloft allows stronger thunderstorms.
- Vorticity at 850 mb: Spin in the low-level winds around the storm (about 5,000 feet).
- Divergence at 200 mb: Air spreading out near the storm top. Positive values mean the outflow is venting the storm.
- Temperature advection, 850 to 700 mb: Warm (positive) or cool (negative) air being carried in at low levels.
- MODEL VTX (KT): LOST means the model no longer tracks the vortex.
- Distance to land: Negative values mean the track is over land.
- Rows shown only under their SHIPS label are reported as SHIPS prints them, without an explanation of our own.
- Ocean values (sea-surface temperature, ocean heat content, maximum potential intensity) are left out where the track is over land.
Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center, SHIPS text product. Row definitions: CIRA SHIPS documentation.